What external variable, stemming from solar activity, can unexpectedly increase atmospheric drag on LEO satellites?

Answer

Solar flares or coronal mass ejections causing atmospheric expansion

The space environment is dynamic, and solar activity introduces significant unpredictability, particularly affecting assets in LEO. Intense solar events, such as flares or coronal mass ejections, inject massive amounts of energy into the Earth's upper atmosphere. This energy causes the atmosphere to heat up and physically expand outward. This expansion increases the density of the atmosphere at altitudes previously thought to be safe from significant drag. Consequently, LEO satellites experience higher-than-predicted drag, causing them to slow down and drop faster than expected, potentially transforming a low-risk trajectory prediction into a genuine conjunction threat.

What external variable, stemming from solar activity, can unexpectedly increase atmospheric drag on LEO satellites?

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