What determines the actual impact zone relative to official mission control projections for Starship debris?

A statistical scatter pattern around the predicted point of the main mass center

Official mission control projections for falling debris are generally based on tracking the trajectory of the vehicle's main mass center, which assumes relatively predictable flight dynamics. However, following an event like a catastrophic breakup, the reality is that the actual impact location for the fragments is not a single point but rather a statistical scatter pattern surrounding that main predicted point. This deviation occurs because every fragment possesses slightly different aerodynamic properties, causing them to disperse widely as they fall through the atmosphere. Therefore, confirming pieces that wash ashore hundreds of miles away requires supplementing the initial projection with post-event data, such as local reports and visual confirmations, rather than relying solely on the model.