What becomes impossible to model perfectly in real time during a catastrophic Starship breakup?

The exact size, shape, and aerodynamic behavior of every single fragment

A fundamental difficulty in precisely determining where all debris falls stems from the complexity introduced during a catastrophic breakup event. While sophisticated telemetry tracks the vehicle's primary status, once fragmentation occurs, the sheer number and variety of resulting pieces prevent perfect real-time simulation. Engineers cannot perfectly predict the precise size, exact shape, and subsequent unique aerodynamic behavior of every single fragment created during the high-energy event. Mission control projections are based on modeling the trajectory of the vehicle's main mass center, but the actual impact zone is invariably a statistical scatter pattern distributed around that predicted point, making pinpoint recovery of every piece impossible through modeling alone.