What systemic risk is posed by heavy reliance on a single, private entity for astronaut transport?

Answer

If the provider faces an unexpected grounding, there is no immediate, fully operational backup for crew rotation.

A fundamental tenet of successful space architecture is the maintenance of redundancy, specifically having at least two independent means to access critical destinations like the International Space Station (ISS). The heavy reliance on SpaceX creates a systemic risk because if the Falcon 9 or Crew Dragon faces an unexpected grounding due to a technical review or anomaly, there is currently no other fully operational domestic system capable of instantaneously taking over the complete schedule for astronaut rotation on short notice. This situation forces NASA's operational cadence to be dictated by the readiness status of a single company’s product line.

What systemic risk is posed by heavy reliance on a single, private entity for astronaut transport?

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