What happens to the uncertainty of an asteroid's impact prediction as more tracking data is gathered?
Answer
The uncertainty shrinks, and the risk factor almost always drops to zero
Early impact predictions are often characterized by a high degree of uncertainty because of limited observational data. As a newly discovered object is tracked over time, the volume of data increases, allowing scientists to refine their orbital calculations. This process creates a clearer understanding of the object's trajectory. In the vast majority of historical cases, this refinement process demonstrates that the object will safely pass by the planet, effectively ruling out any risk of collision.
#Videos
This Asteroid Might Make Impact With Earth in 2032 | NOVA | PBS
NASA Warns: A Deadly Asteroid Is Headed Toward Earth - YouTube
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