What was the calculated probability of Galileo hitting Europa if it had been allowed to coast in orbit initially?
Answer
Perhaps one in 30,000.
When assessing the risk versus reward of keeping Galileo operational versus disposing of it, mission planners considered the statistical probability of an uncontrolled impact. While the immediate probability of hitting Europa if the probe was simply left to drift was calculated to be quite low—estimated at roughly one in 30,000—this risk was not considered negligible when viewed across geological timescales. Over centuries, orbital dynamics like gravitational resonances would cause this probability to increase to an unacceptable level, especially when weighed against the supreme importance of preserving Europa’s environment for potential life discovery.
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