What is the typical required waiting time to confidently confirm an Earth-like planet in a habitable zone orbit using astrometry?
Answer
Two to three years
The confirmation of an astrometric detection is constrained by the time required to observe a sufficient number of orbital cycles to establish statistical confidence and rule out noise sources. For a planet orbiting at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU) around a Sun-like star, the natural orbital period is one year. To confidently confirm this periodicity as planetary rather than noise, astronomers typically must observe for at least two to three full periods, translating to a required waiting time of two to three years.
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