For which specific deep-space mission profile does analysis suggest New Glenn's payload capacity might be surpassed by the Falcon 9 rocket?

Specific deep-space targets like Mars

Although New Glenn is engineered with significant volume and GTO performance advantages, direct mass comparisons to existing heavy lifters highlight nuanced trade-offs depending on the final destination. In specific direct comparisons for trajectories toward deep-space targets such as Mars, some industry analysis suggests that New Glenn's payload capacity might actually be less than that of the operational Falcon 9 rocket for that precise trajectory. This observation underscores the principle that payload success is destination-dependent; a rocket optimized for high-volume LEO or GTO insertion may not outperform a competitor specifically optimized for a different planetary transfer trajectory.